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Probatio Africa

Independent research

Are cash transfers reaching the households that need them?

Rigorous social research generating evidence decision-makers can check and act on, in Nigeria and across Africa.

Every figure on this site shows its source, date and method.

Brief a studySee the evidence
Survey estimate2018/19 data

Under 4%

of poor households’ consumption was covered by safety net benefits. The base cash transfer of ₦5,000 a month was less than 11% of poor beneficiary households’ consumption.

World Bank, The State of Social Safety Nets in Nigeria, 2025

How we know this

These estimates use 2018/19 survey data and predate the recent price rises.

Our work so far

Counted from every completed project, never rounded up.

4

projects completed

3 research studies and 1 M&E training programme

1,222

interviews conducted

1,126 survey interviews and 96 in-depth interviews, plus 12 focus groups

6 of 6

geopolitical zones covered

Work in 10 states and the FCT

44

government officials trained

Bauchi State officials, trained in monitoring and evaluation

Read the case studies

Featured insights

Real, sourced findings from across all five sectors. Every card links to its full source.

Official statistic2022

Health systems · Nigeria

About 76%

of health spending in Nigeria was paid by households out of pocket in 2022. Across 192 countries, the average was about 30%.

WHO Global Health Expenditure Database, via the World Bank

How we know this

Out-of-pocket payments as a share of health spending, compiled from national health accounts. The 30% comparison is the simple average across countries, not weighted by population.

Survey estimate2018/19 data

Social protection, poverty and livelihoods · Nigeria

Under 4%

of poor households’ consumption was covered by safety net benefits. The base cash transfer of ₦5,000 a month was less than 11% of poor beneficiary households’ consumption.

World Bank, The State of Social Safety Nets in Nigeria, 2025

How we know this

These estimates use 2018/19 survey data and predate the recent price rises.

Modelled or projectedPublished 2025

Education · Nigeria

76%

of children aged 5–14 cannot read and understand a simple text, about 45.8 million children. The rate ranges from 15% in Lagos to 99% in Jigawa.

World Bank, HOPE programme information document, 2025

How we know this

Among Grade 3 children, only 22.5% show Grade 2 reading skills and 21.5% show Grade 2 numeracy skills. UNICEF reports a different measure: 74% of children aged 7–14 lack basic reading and mathematics skills.

Official statistic2026

Humanitarian, peace and stability · Nigeria

5.9 million

people in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe face severe to extreme humanitarian needs in 2026.

2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, as reported by OCHA and UNICEF

How we know this

The plan seeks US$516 million to reach 2.5 million of them with life-saving aid, less than half of those with severe or extreme needs. UNICEF counts 8.4 million people in need of humanitarian assistance across Nigeria.

Survey estimate2023

Gender, youth and social inclusion · Nigeria

70%

of women were financially included in 2023, up from 60% in 2020, but the gender gap widened from 8 to 9 percentage points. About 26% of adults, 28.8 million people, remain completely excluded.

EFInA, Access to Finance Survey, 2023

How we know this

Exclusion is 38% in the north-east and 47% in the north-west, against 5% in the south-west.

Modelled or projectedMay 2026

Health systems · Across Africa

5.85 million

projected shortage of health workers in the WHO African Region by 2030, revised down from 6.1 million. WHO calls the reduction marginal and fragile.

WHO Regional Office for Africa, May 2026

How we know this

A needs-based projection. A news report of the same WHO report adds that about 30% of trained health professionals are unemployed or underemployed, and that more than half of new graduates in several countries struggle to find work.

Official statistic2025

Humanitarian, peace and stability · Across Africa

31.7 million

people were internally displaced in sub-Saharan Africa at the end of 2025, nearly 40% of the world total. It was the region's first fall in at least a decade, largely because of returns in the DRC and Sudan.

Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Global Report 2026

How we know this

Conflict displaced 14.5 million people in the region in 2025, and the DRC accounted for 67% of those displacements. Sudan remained the world's largest internal displacement crisis, with 9.1 million people displaced.

Survey estimate2024/25

Gender, youth and social inclusion · Across Africa

55%

of Africans aged 18–35 have considered emigrating, against 22% of those aged 56 and older. Emigration intent is highest among the young and the educated.

Afrobarometer, August 2026 (38 countries)

How we know this

Half of potential emigrants would go in search of work and 29% to escape economic hardship. The share who would prefer another African country fell from 36% to 26% across 31 countries.

See how we label evidence

Five sectors, each starting with a question

Each has its own page: the problems, the questions decision-makers ask, and where the evidence is thin.

Health systems

Are health gains reaching the poorest households, or only improving the average?

Read the sector

Social protection, poverty and livelihoods

Are cash transfers reaching the households that need them?

Read the sector

Education

Are children learning, not only enrolled?

Read the sector

Humanitarian, peace and stability

Are people getting help, and are returns safe and voluntary?

Read the sector

Gender, youth and social inclusion

Who is being left out, and what keeps them out?

Read the sector

What every study is held to

Methods

Recognised frameworks, so results can be compared.

Ethics and safeguarding

Informed consent, ethics review, extra care for under-18s.

Data protection

Personal data only where the study needs it.

Independence

Scope and publication terms agreed in writing first.

Field quality

Trained teams, pilot tests, back-checks on interviews.

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